fed

Fed boss J Powell raised rates again this week, despite the backdrop of bank failures and tightening credit. Is this the end of the Fed put?

I wrote my last wire just before the current proverbial hit the fan. The US 2-year bond yield was trading just over 5%. The good old days… But the point of the article...

3 things you need to know prior to today’s CPI Release

Higher interest rates are precipitating a default cycle, claiming the tech/crypto-centric Silvergate and Silicon Valley banks in recent days

In our first edition of CIO Monthly for 2023, we take a look at how the outlook has evolved over the recent festive months.

Investors need to face up to the reality that a global recession is likely next year, which will crush corporate earnings and substantially increase default rates...

On 30 November, Fed Chair Powell delivered a speech entitled, Inflation and the Labor Market, at the Hutchins Center on Fiscal and Monetary Policy. Markets surged...

On December 15 last year, the US Federal Reserve expected its near-zero cash rate (known as the Federal funds rate) to rise only modestly to 0.9 per cent by the end...

In light of the United States’ (US’) August Consumer Price Index (CPI) report, I provide this latest report as an update to some of the key points that I previously...

We have consistently forecast a US recession using models that draw on both bond and equity market data. Our preferred bond market model was reporting the highest...

In the AFR I write that in an age of record household debt, the Reserve Bank of Australia’s monetary policy transmission mechanism is a beast to behold. When the RBA...

Monetary Policy from Tailwind to Headwind: Last year I counted 123 rate hikes across 41 central banks… meanwhile already so far this year I’ve counted 67 interest...

A risk-management approach to unexpectedly high US inflation suggests that a fast return to neutral funds rate – 2½% on the Fed’s calculation or about 2% on market...

US IPO Activity — From Boom to Bust: This chart gives a sense for the magnitude and scale of the US IPO boom (and bust). Notably, IPO filings increased exponentially...

The Weekly S&P500 ChartStorm is a selection of 10 charts which I hand pick from around the web and post on Twitter. The purpose of this post is to add extra color and...

In the AFR on Friday I wrote that blockbuster inflation data overnight has forced markets to converge with our expectation for 6-7 hikes from the US Federal Reserve in...

Markets have had a rocky start to the year, with expensive growth stocks bearing the brunt of selling. Key to this has been an aggressive repricing of rate hike...

The price of money or rate of interest in a market-determined framework is a function of supply and demand which pertains to savings and investment (borrowing). ...

Long-term readers of Livewire will be familiar with the views of strategist Chris Watling, the founder and chief economist of London-based Longview Economics....

The Australian dollar is emerging stronger from what was always likely to be a volatile week. It dipped under 70 cents on Monday, its weakest point since July. Then on...