us economy

While the US employment market continues to weaken, the latest BLS data shows that as it currently stands, it remains relatively robust.

High inflation and unsustainably low unemployment echo the inverted yield curve in signalling a high risk of a US recession.

Analysis of the recent US bank turmoil indicates the issue is contained to smaller banks, which comprise less than 3% of the system.

Economist Janu Chan argues we should still be worried. The big question is how much.

The US labour market is past its peak, but still remains very tight despite higher interest rates.

Throughout history, many, many, banks have failed. In the US, bank failures are surprisingly common and even in more recent times – the Federal Deposit Insurance...

After a 4.65% increase in interest rates this past year, why isn’t the U.S. economy tanking? And why aren’t retail sales plummeting? One reason, perhaps, is that...

Oh inflation. For so long, you lay dormant, so much so that policymakers were complaining that there wasn’t enough of it. Last month has seen renewed concerns with...

US inflation came in higher than expectations. Now, month-to-month inflation numbers can be volatile. But there are more than a few data points in this report that are...

US inflation came in around expectations. It is probably getting better, but there is still the opportunity to see what you want in the numbers. If your view is that...

In the context of the bond market signalling a US recession in late 2023/early 2024 - where CCI has been forecasting a recession since earlier this year - we have...

Last month, there was a moment that analysts and financial market participants had been hoping for some time. Like kids waiting for Christmas morning, market...

US core inflation and wage growth have both peaked, but remain high, with the split of inflation showing persistent, broad-based demand-driven gains in consumer...

With the US’ M2 growth decelerating sharply, as opposed to inflation, a significant recession should now be the major concern Alongside the US delivering its second...

The risk of a recession in the US in 2023 based on bond/equity market pricing and forecasts has surged as interest rates have risen and equities have slumped, with...

The stock market is signalling a heightened risk of a US recession in mid 2023 assuming no recovery in equity prices over the rest of this year. This is earlier than...

US wages growth is still rapidly accelerating with the employment cost index up about 4½% over the past year, which is the fastest growth since 2000 and 1991 before...

The Delta variant has become the predominant strain of COVID-19 in much of the world. In response, we're seeing a return to lockdowns and other socially...

It’s official. As announced on 19 July, the United States National Bureau of Economic Research (NBER) determined that last year’s US recession* ended in April – just...

US equities are extremely expensive according to long-term valuation measures such as the cyclically-adjusted PE (CAPE) ratio. The CAPE ratio for the S&P500 is...