The Match Out: ASX down, more signs rates have peaked

James Gerrish

Market Matters

  • The ASX 200 finished down -6pts/ -0.09% at 7251
  • The Material sector was best on ground (+2.29%) while Energy (+1.62%) was also strong.
  • Communications (-2.26%) and Real-Estate (-1.72%) the weakest links, although Telstra (ASX: TLS) did trade ex-divi for 8.5c.
  • Aussie Bond yields fell following weaker than expected inflation data for January – the rate sensitive 3-years down 9.5bps to 3.50% - a decent move which underpinned the yield sensitive stocks.
  • As we’ve written a number of times this week, we believe markets and central banks have become too hawkish and yields are already close/at a peak for 1H of 2023 – todays move further supports that thesis.
  • Downers (ASX: DOW) +0.63% CFO has resigned following a diabolical result this week – this is now a very interesting contrarian play. One we should be watching closely.
  • Gerry Harvey remains bullish on HVN -2.34% telling the AFR’s Chanticleer column “My advice to you is sell your house, sell your boat, sell your car, put the lot into Harvey Norman [shares] and then ring me in three or four years, and you won’t need to be a journalist any more,”. The Market Matters compliance team would have a field day if something like that came from us!
  • Halo (ASX: HAL) -10% pushed through their FY results at 7.13pm last night – the night of the final day of the report window, never a good sign – the stock listed on the 26th April at $1.20, closing today at 18c. Now close to cash backing.
  • Iron Ore was ~2.1% higher in Asia today supporting Fortescue (ASX: FMG) +3.4% & RIO +2.48%
  • Gold was up overnight and edged up US$5 in Asian trade today, settled $US1832 at our close.
  • Asian stocks were up, particularly Hong Kong shares which added +3.5%, Japan +0.07% while China was up +1%
  • US Futures are all marginally higher.

ASX 200 Chart

Market Matters In the Media

  • Lead Portfolio Manager James Gerrish discussing Retail Stocks this morning, including Harvey Norman (ASX: HVN), Nick Scali (ASX: NCK), Wesfarmers (ASX: WES) and Super Retail (ASX: SUL)Click Here
  • Research Lead Shawn Hickman discussing Market Matters views on BHP, Mineral Resources (ASX: MIN) & TPG Telecom (ASX: TPG)Click Here
  • Portoflio Manager Harry Watt covering Aussie Broadband (ASX: ABB), Praemium (ASX: PPS) & a bit of Lynas! Click Here

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AMP (ASX: AMP) $1.055

AMP +1.93%: the wealth management company finished up today despite going ex-dividend on news Dexus has extended the Collimate acquisition deadline to 20 March. It’s been a complex task to unravel the business ahead of the transition, and Dexus has been supportive. Much of the issue lies with the China Life AMP Asset Management (CLAMP) which will now likely form part of a second tranche in the deal where the remaining assets being transferred will complete by 20 March. As part of the amendments, the deal will now go through at the base price of $225m.

Broker Moves

  • Harvey Norman Cut to Underweight at Jarden Securities; PT A$3.60
  • Adbri Cut to Accumulate at CLSA; PT A$1.90
  • Adbri Cut to Sell at Citi; PT A$1.50
  • Harvey Norman Cut to Negative at Evans & Partners Pty Ltd
  • Arena REIT Rated New Neutral at Barrenjoey; PT A$3.80
  • MoneyMe Cut to Hold at Morgans Financial Limited
  • Harvey Norman Cut to Reduce at CLSA; PT A$4
  • NEXTDC Raised to Buy at Jefferies; PT A$12.10
  • Adbri Cut to Underperform at Jefferies; PT A$1.40

Major Movers Today

Have a great night

The Market Matters Team

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James Gerrish
Portfolio Manager
Market Matters

James is Portfolio Manager & Primary Author at Market Matters, a daily investment report with over 2500 subscribers that offers real market insight. He is also Senior Portfolio Manager within Shaw and Partners heading up a team that manages...

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